Whitepaper: Attribution Challenges in Economic Impact Studies of Festivals and Events
Date: January 23, 2026
Author: Mark Turner, PhD | President, Optimal Solutions Group | Co-Founder, Revelo Software
Economic impact studies of festivals and events are often expected to answer a deceptively simple question: What changed because of the event? In practice, many studies report large economic figures based on gross spending and multipliers, without clearly separating activity that truly occurred because of the event from activity that would have happened anyway.
This white paper examines why attribution, isolating net, incremental economic effects, remains one of the most difficult and misunderstood aspects of event-sector economic impact analysis. Drawing on academic research and applied case examples, it explains where common approaches break down and how analysts can strengthen causal claims within real-world data constraints.
What you’ll learn
- Why gross spending and multiplier-based estimates often overstate “impact”
- The difference between economic activity, economic contribution, and attributed impact
- How bundled trip purpose, substitution, displacement, and leakage distort results
- Why festivals and events pose unique attribution challenges compared to other policy domains
- Practical attribution strategies that improve credibility, even without experimental designs